A new era in Austrian politics

By Gerhard Marchl
7 July 2016
Austria Austria
As Austria’s constitutional court demands a re-run of this year’s presidential election, there are alarming similarities to the UK’s pre-Brexit political landscape
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In the last few weeks, the Austrian political scene has been dominated by the presidential elections and their legal challenge at the constitutional court, as well as by the future of the Social Democratic party of Austria (SPÖ). Even though the election of Christian Kern as new party leader ended the imminent crisis, the SPÖ is facing many challenges. The role of Austria in Europe, in particular after the Brexit referendum, is a further question that has to be tackled.

Last Friday, the Austrian constitutional court decided that the run-off presidential election between far-right candidate Norbert Hofer from the Freedom party (FPÖ) and Alexander Van der Bellen from the Green party must be repeated in all of Austria. The judges pointed out irregularities in several electoral districts regarding the process of counting the postal ballots, but there was no sign that any manipulation of votes and results had taken place. Van der Bellen had won 50.3 per cent of the vote in the run-off on 22 May. The difference to his rival was just over 30,000 votes.

In this context, it is interesting to highlight the similarities between the electorate of Norbert Hofer and the Brexit voters in the UK. Similar to the Brexit campaign, Hofer gained outstanding support in rural areas, among the older generation, the less-educated, workers, and men. Whereas Van der Bellen’s strongholds were large cities, the younger generation, better-educated people, and women.

However, the Austrian highest court’s ruling is a major blow for the country’s political system, and it gives an additional impetus to the Freedom party, which has been on the rise for three decades now, albeit with serious setbacks in between.

One of the deciding factors of the rerun presidential elections on 2 October will be the performance of the grand coalition formed by the Social Democrats and the conservative Austrian People’s party (ÖVP). In particular, the leadership of new SPÖ chancellor Christian Kern may have an influence on the outcome.

In the past decades, especially since 2006, the SPÖ has had to accept disastrous electoral results, albeit with a few exceptions. Yet, it remains the strongest party with roughly 27 per cent of the vote. Nevertheless, according to recent polls, the Freedom party would currently win more than 30 per cent of the vote. Former SPÖ chancellor Werner Faymann, who resigned on 9 May, had lost credibility and popularity in and outside the party. The grand coalition that he had been leading had been perceived as weak, even if the government’s performance had been better than presented in the media. Criticism of Faymann increased with his sharp change in attitude in dealing with the refugee crisis. When SPÖ presidential candidate Rudolf Hundstorfer won only 11 per cent in the first round, support for Faymann within the party continued to shrink. After Faymann’s resignation Christian Kern, by then CEO of the Austrian Railways, was designated as SPÖ chairman several days later.

A simple change in chairmanship cannot solve the problems of the SPÖ. Three of the manifold challenges are as follows. First, the SPÖ as part of the grand coalition is unable to put through a real progressive agenda. An example is the issue of tax justice. For many years, the SPÖ has been demanding (higher) wealth and inheritance taxes, but without real success, which leads to lack of credibility. Second, the party does not provide sufficient answers to globalisation and modernisation, and for the losers of these developments. Consequently, the FPÖ has become the strongest party among the working classes. Third, linked to this, it needs to be said that a considerable number of SPÖ politicians lack ideological focus. Day-to-day policy issues dominate the political debate, whereas basic values are underrepresented or even ignored.

Another challenge for the SPÖ (and the other pro-European parties in Austria) is the question of Austria’s role in Europe, particularly after the disaster of the British vote. A referendum on ‘Öxit’ is, at this time, not likely to happen, but the overall mood is as alarmingly Eurosceptic as in the UK. According to autumn 2015’s Eurobarometer, the EU evoked a fairly or very negative image among 31 per cent of UK citizens, but 41 per cent of Austrians. Moreover, 56 per cent of the Austrians are pessimistic about the future of the EU (UK 44 per cent). It would be no surprise if the FPÖ, as a strong anti-EU voice, demanded a referendum at some point. Under these circumstances, it is indispensable for the other main parties, the Social Democrats in particular, to voice their vision of a united Europe. They have to make clear that Austria’s prosperity is closely linked to its EU membership.

Having in mind all these challenges, newly elected party chairman Christian Kern stated at the party congress on 25 June that the social democratic era was just starting. It is about time for this new start.